Juan Soto signed the biggest contract in baseball history, but was it too much?
Last night, the 26-year-old superstar, Juan Soto signed the largest contract in baseball history: 15 years and $765 million with the New York Mets. It would appear there is a new sheriff in town and for once in New York history the team that plays in Queens is the true baseball king of New York. It appears Steve Cohen would stop at nothing to sign Soto and it truly feels like he would stop at NOTHING. Between a signing bonus of $75 million and $220 million in salary, Soto will earn $305 million over the first five years of the deal, putting the AAV at $61 million. He can opt-out after the 2029 season unless they up his AAV from $51 million to $55 million making the value of the deal over $800 million. There is no deferred money either (which I respect) so clearly this was too much for any other team to even make an attempt at and makes Soto the highest-paid baseball player who ever lived. So let’s discuss.
Juan Soto: Trouble for the NL East
Well since we’re a Philly podcast and blog, no bueno. The Mets, coming off their defeat of the Phillies in the NLDS just added a generational hitter in Juan Soto to their already solid lineup. Soto/Lindor/Vientos is quite a trio and they are hoping that firepower rivals Ohtani/Betts/Freeman out in LA. Both kind of feel like they are dwarfing what the Phillies have in Turner/Harper and whichever player you’d add to their trio. It feels like a massive, potentially momentum-shifting moment in the sport. The Phillies are the defending champs in the NL East and the Braves will unfortunately be right back in it in 2025, but the Mets just took a massive step towards being the best team in the NL East. Soto also just turned 26 so he’s primed to be elite for at least another 5-7 years. Coming off what was arguably his best professional season and drawing comparisons to Barry Bonds since he was a teenager, it is reasonable to suggest that Soto will actually get better. Terrifyingly for everyone else, his best seasons might be ahead of him.
Now let’s talk about the negatives for the Mets. Is this section just hate or coping? Let’s see. Juan Soto is a bad fielder. By every metric, on his best days, he is a below-average outfielder and has even been prone to drop very catchable balls a few times a year. He also has the build of someone who as they get older might need to become a DH. He has been very healthy so far in his career, rarely missing games, but definitely will not be spending his next 15 years in the outfield. While teams don’t value fielding a ton, especially with offensive results like Soto’s, knowing potentially 65% or more of this deal will be spent as a DH is certainly a risk. This contract is also a wild overpay. There is no other way to put it. Shohei Ohtani got an unprecedented $700 million contract because he himself is unprecedented. Ohtani is a Top 10 hitter in the sport and a Top 10 Pitcher. He is also a great fielder for what it’s worth even though he doesn’t do that anymore. Ohtani got a historic contract because he is a once-in-a-lifetime baseball player. Soto is just a really good hitter. Before the signing of this contract, the largest non-Ohtani deal was Mike Trout’s 12-year $426.5 million deal with the Angels. Somewhere in the $500-$600 million range would have been understandable. More than two times the amount Mookie Betts makes is just insanity. For example, Bryce Harper and Aaron Nola will make just about the same as Soto alone in 2025. Is that not a better use of money?
Juan Soto Deal Will Disrupt the Market
This contract was an egregious overpay, but the Mets don’t care about that as one of the best hitters in the sport now plays in Queens. Steve Cohen has laid the hammer down on the Yankees, but also the MLB as a whole. It will be interesting to see what this does to the free agency market moving forward. Soto was not worth this amount, but now is $765 million is the trendsetter? Cohen’s hunger to land Soto at all costs has almost doubled the price tag for high-level free agents overnight. Will every elite player now push for $700+ million? Will we see Bryce and Scott Boras really push for a renegotiation of his deal now? Don’t be shocked if you see the Phillies become more aggressive this offseason now to fire back on the Dodgers and Mets. Ultimately, Juan Soto is now three-quarters of the way to being a billionaire and he plays for the New York Mets.
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