The Phillies can make all the moves they want, but is fixing mistakes from within the only true fix?
272 wins, 12 All Star appearances, an NL East Championship, and a National League Pennant. The Phillies and the over 9 million fans who have come to see them over the last three seasons have accomplished quite a bit. The franchise has come a long way, and excluding the Covid shortened season, it has improved its record every year for the last seven seasons. It is the only team ever to do that. In the Phillies’ 140+ year history, this is only the third time the team has made it to the playoffs at least three seasons in a row. That being said, they have still fallen short of the main goal: a World Series Championship. Is there any particular reason why? Well, excuses don’t mean a ton, but in 2022 the Astros were unequivocally the better team. The high of good baseball for the first time in a decade masked the fact that the team blew a 2-1 series lead. There was clearly more good baseball to come. As for 2023 and 2024? Both seasons were fun, but ended earlier than the last, and seemingly for the same reasons.
The Phillies Regression Points to Need for Adjustment
After going up 2-0 to the Diamondbacks in the 2023 NLCS the Phillies would lose four of the next five games averaging only three runs a game. The Phillies’ pitching staff, even with Kimbrel’s implosions, averaged a 2.79 era for the series. In the 2024 NLDS 3-1 loss to the Mets, the Phillies again only managed three runs a game, scoring only five total runs across the three losses. The pitching staff was substantially worse in this series as outside of a few pitchers, they all fell flat. This means over their last nine playoff games the Phillies are 2-7, only managing three runs a game while striking out 88 times (9.8 a game.). That type of performance also shines a light on the 2022 World Series collapse where in the final three games they scored three total runs while striking out 35 times. They were even no-hit in Game 4. All this to say that it appears the Phillies have one glowing weakness; the offense.
The players here NEED to adjust. They cannot replace everyone or magically spend out of that. It is hard to believe that an offense that has this much invested in it isn’t enough, but here we are as the Phillies now have a defined track record of coming up short on that side. What makes this offense so infuriating is that they will not just go cold, but they will become the worst offense in the league for weeks at a time. Super high strikeout rates and terrible approaches kill this team and were highlighted even more when the Rangers in 2023 (who faced the Diamondbacks), and the Dodgers in 2024 (who faced the Mets in 2024) annihilated the teams the Phillies imploded against. Those two teams combined to score 71 runs over eleven games (6.5 a game) against the two teams the Phillies couldn’t figure out on their way to their respective titles. They did it through disciplined approaches and not swinging at garbage pitches.
What should Dave Dombrowski and the Phillies do?
You can’t throw “stupid money” at approach and consistency. Dave Dombrowski faces a really difficult task. On the positive, there is absolutely zero worry on the pitching side. The Phillies have the best starting rotation in baseball and appear to only be making it better. Despite the playoff issues they have had one of the better bullpens as well. Caleb Cotham is the Phillies’ Jeff Stoutland and is maximizing every arm they get their hands on. This offense, however, is a mess of some of the streakiest players in the league. They are a group on paper that should be more than capable of winning a World Series, especially with the pitching staff they have but have not done it in three seasons. They have tried throwing money at it. A guy like Trea Turner was signed in part because he was supposed to be less streaky and might be the streakiest guy on the team outside of Schwarber.
So what can Dombrowski do? I don’t envy him. The majority of free agents are similar archetypes. Tyler O’Neil, Willy Adames, and Anthony Santander; are all players who have big power, but high strikeout rates. The player on the Phillies that everyone appears to agree will be traded this offseason, Alec Bohm, is the player in the lineup that makes the most contact of any everyday starter. This team has also been completely uninvolved in the Juan Soto sweepstakes for whatever reason. So do you steer into the skid? Sign one or two of those guys and hope that not all six of your 30+ home runs stay cold for an entire playoff series. Do you fire Kevin Long and hire a new hitting coach? The ability to make a true splash really doesn’t appear to be there. Dombrowski himself said that he doesn’t really have a clear answer. If they do something truly big it will come from a trade. With the limitations of what might be available offensively, Dave might double down on what they do best, pitching. The Phillies noticeably have not been connected to any hitters, but have had their hands in on multiple pitchers. They appear to want to build a super-rotation and bullpen and just hope some internal adjustments can be taken on by the hitters they currently have and that will be enough.
Ultimately the biggest change this team could make would be for the players already here to make adjustments and work on becoming more patient and disciplined hitters. How realistic is that with a group of largely 30-plus-year-old vets? This writer is not so sure, but at this point, that might be their best path forward. With that in mind though Dombrowski has a tough task ahead of him as he knows running the team back will be a tough pill to swallow for fans and maybe even the players themselves. I do have confidence in Dombrowski, he is a Hall of Fame executive whose run with the Phillies and understanding of the modern game has convinced me that whatever decisions he makes this offseason, they will be the right ones.
What do you think the Phillies need to do to secure a World Series Championship with their current big guns? Let us know in the comments or on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, or TikTok!
