To say Zach Wheeler has lived up to the initial contract he signed with the Phillies in the winter of 2019/2020 would be an understatement. Since 2020 there is a very realistic case to be made that Zack has been the best pitcher in the sport. One of a select few bonafide aces in the MLB with the best 4-seam fastball in the sport. Wheeler has terrorized hitters in the regular and postseason alike throughout his time in Phillies’ pinstripes. One achievement has alluded Wheeler in his time here; a Cy Young. Last week Wheeler was nominated as a Cy Young Finalist for the second time in the last four seasons. One week from today the Cy Young award will be handed out and while it does appear that Chris Sale is the favorite, this is the case for why Zack Wheeler should be the 2024 NL Cy Young Award Winner.
Zack Wheeler Should Win the 2024 NL Cy Young Award
How good is Zach Wheeler? Well since he started with the Phillies in 2020, he ranks 2nd to only his teammate Aaron Nola in innings pitched, ranks 6th in strikeouts, 2nd in ERA, 3rd in Wins, and tied for 3rd in WHIP. His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), a metric that isolates pitching performance away from the defense behind the pitcher, ranks him as 1st in baseball during that time. These stats are not the NL, but the MLB as a whole. The closest he has come to the CY Young was in 2021 when he finished 2nd in voting to Corbin Burnes, and looking back on it, he was robbed. Burnes is an outstanding pitcher and in 2021 led all of baseball in K/9 and ERA, but Wheeler appeared to be penalized for pitching… more? Wheeler led all of baseball in innings pitched that season with 213.1, a number which was 46.1 more innings pitched than Burnes’ 167. Wheeler made the innings equivalent of nearly 8 more quality starts (4 actual) than Burnes and finished with an ERA only .35 points higher than Burnes at 2.78. Wheeler also had more quality starts and went 7+ innings in 17/32 starts. It is a feat that Burnes only managed to do 7/28 times he went.
The 2024 award is an isolated entity though. Previous seasons, nor the postseason are supposed to impact decisions. So let’s look at this season. At surface level, it might seem like a lock for Chris Sale as he achieved an absolutely incredible benchmark; the pitching Triple Crown. He led all of baseball in Wins (tied with Tarik Skubal in the AL), Strikeouts, and ERA. Doesn’t that kind of imply an open and shut case? Not exactly. Zack Wheeler was with him every step of the way. Wheeler was 2nd in ERA (.19 higher), 2nd in wins (16), and 2nd in strikeouts (1 less than Sale). Just as in 2021, Wheeler pitched a solid chunk more than Sale pitching 22.2 innings more. A decent chunk of that came from the fact that down the stretch Sale broke down, last pitching on September 19th. Wheeler only seemed to lock in even more. Sale was notoriously unavailable in the Braves’ final make-or-break games as they lost out on hosting the wildcard series and then were unceremoniously eliminated in two games from the playoffs–in part because Sale could not pitch. Wheeler was not just elite, but elite on the team with the 2nd best record in baseball. He was the best player on arguably the best regular-season team in the sport.
As far as stats, Zack Wheeler led the NL in: WHIP, Quality Starts, Opponents BA/OBP/OPS, and wOBA. Wheeler ranked 1st in MLB in starts of 6+ innings and 2 or less runs allowed. A stat that Chris Sale ranked 9th in. Against playoff teams, Wheeler made 9 starts combined against the Dodgers, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Mets, and the Braves. He had a 1.55ERA in 58 innings with a .88 WHIP and 63Ks to 8BB. Sale made 9 starts against the Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Padres, and Mets. He managed a 2.44ERA in 51.2 innings pitched with a 1.16 WHIP and 66Ks to 14BBS. Wheeler pitched substantially better against the best the NL had to offer than Sale. Wheeler was also dramatically better than Sale in their own division, a division Wheeler’s team in large part won because of him. Wheeler posted a 2.60ERA in 62.1 innings with a .93WHIP. Sale against the NL East had a 3.48ERA in 33.2 innings pitched with a 1.04WHIP.
The Reality of the Cy Young Award
Ultimately the Cy Young Award is a legacy collector for any pitcher’s resume, but only factors in the current season when doing so. Chris Sale was incredible and in this writer’s opinion, I do think Sale is going to win it. That being said, even when you factor out the 2021 screwjob, Zack Wheeler’s statistical dominance for the past 5 seasons, or his legendary postseason statistics which were not even discussed in this article; Wheeler deserves the Cy Young because he is unequivocally the best pitcher in the sport. He is the complete package, presented in a very soft-spoken man from Georgia. The voters need to select Zach Wheeler to win the NL Cy Young Award in 2024 because at the end of the day, if you need to win one game and can pick any pitcher, you’re picking Zack Wheeler.
Let us know who you think will win the NL Cy Young Award in the comments below. Be sure to follow us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, BlueSky, and TikTok.
