Good afternoon GENY phaithful. I know these usually get posted in the morning, but last night was Tyles and Magnolia’s birthday party. I may have indulged as I am want to do. Then, at the literal asscrack of dawn, I arose to join Charley Lancaster’s crew for a round of golf. It was my “Jordan flu game,” but I could still eke out a score good enough to win the day and the transfusions that followed. So again, I apologize for the delay in posting, I am not running away scared after a 1-2 Thursday and a 1-1 day yesterday. We are a combined 14-8 for the tourney, and while that is statistically excellent for sports betting, it is not the standard here in JJ’s gambling condo. We’re up 6 units. We’re playing 3 units today and 3 tomorrow.
But first, let’s look at those futures wagers we made. All three teams are here. Duke has appreciated like the blue blood they are. Houston has increased slightly, and Auburn has diminished slightly. The right move if you are holding all three of these is to either hold through the weekend or bail on all three after tonight’s game. I expect Duke to win, which will improve their odds. I am not as confident about the other 2, so I’d cash out all 3. You’ll chalk up a slight profit and have the capital for the final four stretch. I am holding all 3 because I would like to think that two of the three make it to San Antonio, if not all 3.
Onto today’s action. I like two plays. One is in my wheelhouse and is a 2 unit confidence play. The other makes me kinda sad, but I love the metrics and the matchup…
-Saturday 6:09 pm Florida -7.5 (1) vs Texas Tech (3): The gators are the second best team in this tournament and are peaking at the right time. I think they are challenged early by the Red Raiders but pull away to cover. This is the Confidence play of 2 units!
-Saturday 8:49 pm Duke (1) vs Alabama (2) UNDER 174.5: Look, I’m sad about an under play. No one likes rooting for under but the matchup is the important thing. Duke matches up so well against Alabama, particularly defensively. Bama is NOT going to get the open 3 looks they have had most of the tournament thus far. After the 113 they put up on the stormin’ Mormons, the books have the total inflated, and the public is lapping it up with a spoon. I think Duke wins, but I’m not willing to lay the 7.5 when the value is the under. 1 unit.
Let’s have a Sudbury Saturday night!