I know, it’s an ominous name for an article title. I wanted to title it something else, but it was also a Flyers podcast from back in the day, and I kinda wanna see if I can buy the name for us… Sue me.
Welcome back, my friends, to the show that abruptly ends. Flyers’ season ended and I know the first thing you thought of when the clock hit zero last Thursday night in Buffalo was “I bet JJ is over the moon happy about this loss!” And you would be right, I was. And the reason it took me five days to tell you all what I think is simple… I went to the shore and didn’t bring a computer, but I did bring my golf clubs. Anyways, I’m back from Outer Ocean View (IYKYK). The Flyers snatched literal defeat and the metaphorical victory in game 82, and as a result of tiebreakers and assorted other niceties, they will have the 4th-best odds in the upcoming NHL Draft Lottery. Thank god, because as I have been harping on since New Year’s, this is a draft class of 5 or 6 prospects that have top-end grades, and the lowest that the Flyers can pick now is 6th. Cue hanging the Mission Accomplished sign on the aircraft carrier (gonna be a lot of deep cuts in this one, people, keep up).
In a perfect world, they win the Draft lottery or move up to 2nd overall and get choice, but even staying at 4 or dropping will yield a player needed for the build. Now it’s the doom and gloom time… We still need more. This team, this offseason, has to make a CLEAR choice, either try to add pieces to take a step forward and make the postseason OR rip the whole thing down to the studs and try to be the ABSOLUTE WORST TEAM IN HOCKEY next year so we have the best odds to win the 2026 lottery and Gavin McKenna. Now, I appreciate that you are probably expecting me to say tank-baby-tank because of my attitude this year, and you can’t be faulted for that… But, I am actually saying the opposite. Being the worst team in the league gives you a 25.5% chance of landing the number 1 overall pick in the draft. One in four. I think you all know where I’m going with this…
We are not a lucky people. Never have been, never will be. If we were a lucky city, we’d have at least 2 or 3 more championships in the modern era. I’m not going to litigate which ones (that’s for a snake draft in the near future), but suffice it to say that I am not comfortable in taking a 1 in 4 shot and mortgaging this team. There are enough young pieces that the time to make moves is here, and try and at least make a Wild Card next season.
Don’t give me that look. I’m the King of Ice, of course, I know that one top-6 pick isn’t going to fix the fact that this team is missing: a true 1C, 1D, and competent NHL starting goaltending (Ersson is a competent NHL backup, fight me). How do we fix all of that? Easy, I’ll walk you through it in a new series of articles that will start dropping weekly next week (after the NFL Draft, I know where my bread gets buttered).
Speaking of buttering bread, guess I’ll butter yours in JJ’s Gambling Shack!
Okay, betting the Stanley Cup Playoffs is incredibly difficult and only for true degenerates. There, now that the warning label is affixed, here we go. I’m going to give you a few days at a time, we’ll track progress like we always do to keep me accountable. I’m not big on series bets in the first round since you rarely get value, and especially since there’s been at least 1 game played in 7 of 8 matchups. Also, quick gambling note, I will denote the level of play per pick in parentheses next to each play. A sprinkle is a fraction of a unit, and a unit is your personal, standardized amount you wager. Remember, we don’t unit shame here in the condo, here’s the plays:
Tuesday, April 22: Parlay the Carolina Hurricanes and Vegas Golden Knights moneylines (a sprinkle up to one single unit, depending on your preference). Both of these teams are head and shoulders above their competition and should win their opening series without too much effort. Both teams take a stranglehold tonight by winning.
Wednesday, April 23: I have two plays here. First, take the Montreal Canadiens to win Game 2 at around +165 (put enough of a sprinkle on it to win a full unit, so it’s not a huge loss, but a nice win). The second play is to take the Dallas Stars to win Game 3 and take a 2-1 series lead (a sprinkle up to a single unit, they are currently +142 on the app I prefer).
I’ll have another piece up before the games on Thursday with plays for Thursday and Friday, and we’ll dance this dance until the playoffs are over or I end up back in the gambling shack.