Here I sit watching Liberty getting their doors blown off by Oregon and I am happy we chalked up another winning day but much like Thursday I am disappointed that we only squeaked by with another 3-2 day to put the first round total at a barely acceptable 6-4. When we went 3-0 to start Friday I had high hopes of at least a 4-1 if not a perfect day…
Listen 6-4 is a good start to the tournament but after the run I went on in college football and the NFL playoffs I would be lying if I wasn’t a bit let down by the meager win percentage. But we are up with the second round looming.
First and foremost, we are still in a holding pattern with our 3 “stocks”, the three future bets on Duke, Houston, and Auburn. Duke and Houston have both held on their odds to win the natty and Auburn has been downgraded from Blue Chip status to a B-level position. This is what I expected after one round. Odds won’t shift in our favor until these teams punch their ticket to the Sweet 16 and most certainly if they get to the elite 8, which I expect Duke and Houston to do. Auburn is in a tricky situation that can easily be remedied with a convincing win on Saturday. Diamond hands people, diamond hands.
Moving on, I wish we had more of a bankroll to make some confidence level plays Saturday, but after the juice we are below +2 units and that means we are sticking to 1 unit plays Saturday. Here’s what I like:
-Saturday 2:40 pm Arkansas +7.5 (10) vs St. John’s (2): this is a great game early in the slate and while I think any outcome in this game from a blowout either way to a nail-biter is possible. With that being said I like getting 7.5 and think that number is a bit too high so I would expect to cash this as a win more than half the time so we like the value significantly.
-Saturday 8:40 pm Houston -4.5 (1) vs Gonzaga (8): The Bulldogs have a good team, but they are a far cry from the team that was a perennial top seed and favorite to win the natty. They had a good season and all, but every time they played an upper-echelon team they lost. I expect that to occur here.
-Saturday 9:40 pm Tennessee -5.5 (2) vs UCLA (7): Tennessee is very good and played in the best conference in basketball this season and they should dispatch the Bruins easily.
Those are my three plays. I also kinda have my eye on Creighton +9.5 against Auburn but I’m not making a play there because I might just be overreacting to War Eagle’s game Thursday. Let’s have a day!