The Phillies remained largely quiet until they landed one of the best-starting pitchers available this offseason
The Phillies and Dave Dombrowski didn’t exactly sprint out of the gates this offseason. As the offseason has developed it has become clear that this time, the Phillies are acting with some restrictions in place. Keep their top prospects in place and avoid going over the final luxury tax. To not be involved with Soto was expected as Scott Boras fleeced Steve Cohen for one of the most obnoxious contracts we have ever seen. However, the Phillies have made it clear what the plan is this offseason. Find value in some less expected places. One thing at this point that needs to be known is that the Phillies move in absolute silence. Every year the players they sign are almost completely unexpected. There is a pretty solid chance that if you hear their name tied to a player, they might not have any interest in them.
Bullpen Additions: Romano and Ross
The Phillies knew they needed bullpen help, especially with Jeff Hoffman being a free agent. Fans hoped that Hoffman would return, but with the skyrocketing prices of free agency and Hoffman’s desire to get back into starting pitching, that path is appearing less and less likely. While there is still a chance, Dombrowski has bet on the upside, signing Jordan Romano and, most recently, Joe Ross. Both were very unexciting signings, but given the minimal investments (Romano 1 year/$8.5 million / Ross 1 year/$4 million) they could pay off quite nicely. Romano was the team’s first offseason move. From 2020-2023 Romano was one of the league’s best closers saving 97 games over those four years to the tune of a 2.10 ERA with 251Ks over 250.2 IP. Romano, nagged by injuries in 2024 struggled severely with an ERA of 6.59 and was released by the Blue Jays. He is a prime bounce-back candidate–if the Phillies get anything remotely close to what he was from 20-23, he will be a steal. That being said, with the shelf life of bullpen arms and him essentially being Hoffman’s replacement, who was a top-five reliever in baseball the last two seasons, this is a very risky play. Joe Ross provides some much needed depth with an upside. While his career has been average, he did thrive last year with the Brewers when coming out of the pen. 27 innings pitched, 27Ks, and a 1.67ERA, Ross had some issues with base runners but could be a nice mid-level addition out of the pen. He’s not a high-leverage guy, but quality middle-inning guys still have value. Ross can also fill the role of a swingman, bouncing from the pen to the starting rotation as needed.
Max Kepler Joins the Outfield
That brings us to the signing of Max Kepler. While the Phillies very clearly needed some outfield help this offseason, it is fair no one was expecting that help to come in the form of a left-handed hitting 32-year-old coming off their worst professional season. Kepler signed a 1 year/$10 million deal with the Phillies and it was so unexpected that many people figured it must mean another move is coming. However, Dombrowski did basically confirm that Kepler is the outfield help and may be primarily playing left field despite never playing there in his career. Kepler, like Romano, is coming off an injury in 2024 that left him with an OPS of .682. His chase rate was also concerningly high, especially with the lineup already in Philly. He is a very solid fielder, but will be 32 on opening day, and, while it should not be too challenging. is playing a new position in left field. Kepler was one of the best players in the AL in 2019, but also that was six years ago. The deal is objectively low risk, but for an everyday player, the results could be a pretty low reward.
The Luzardo Trade: A Game-Changer
Things were looking pretty stale and when the Phillies officially struck out on Garret Crochet, it appeared the offseason would remain very quiet. Then Dave Dombrowski traded for Jesus Luzardo. Dombrowski traded Starlyn Caba and Emaarion Boyd for Luzardo and catcher Paul McIntosh. Caba, an 80-grade defensive player in the Phillies system, was an interesting prospect but was also pretty far from the majors at this point. Luzardo is a 27-year-old, left-handed with some truly nasty stuff with a fastball, slider, and change-up combo. Luzardo had a bad, injury-prone season in 2024, but before that in 22/23, over 40 starts he threw 279 innings with 328 strikeouts to the tune of a 3.45 ERA. Luzardo looked like a high-quality pitcher with the Marlins so the idea that Pitching Whisper Caleb Cotham will get his hands on him is truly exciting. The man seems to unlock the best of every pitcher the Phillies get their hands on. Dombrowski seemingly wanted another young, ace-level pitcher to work with Painter in the years to come and he very well may have just nabbed that in Luzardo. Luzardo will probably be the Phillies’ number 3, maybe 4, starter with the upside of being even better than that. With Luzardo being controlled by the Phillies through 2026 it also may read that we may be seeing the last of Ranger Suarez on the Phillies. He may still play out 2025, but he is a free agent after this year and the Phillies haven’t made any attempt to sign him which speaks volumes. Until then though, Dombrowski has made the best rotation in baseball even better. Wheeler, Nola, Luzardo, Sanchez, Suarez, and Painter; this team has a super rotation to unleash in 2025. Dombrowski getting the pitcher he wanted while not trading their top prospects (Painter, Miller, and Crawford) was truly fantastic. Luzardo’s biggest weakness is his health as he has struggled to stay healthy so far in his career which obviously could continue to be a problem, but the skill set with this coaching staff could prove to be a lethal combo.
Assessing the Offseason So Far
The Phillies off-season, until the Luzardo trade, felt like they were stuck at the starting blocks. However, when you step back you can see that the Phillies are very clearly still in the race. By most odds makers they are in the top 4 to win the World Series in 2025, even ahead of the Mets who signed Juan Soto. It is safe to say that the Phillies still have a very good team. As previously discussed, the offense has shown their hand as maybe not being good enough, but there should be more than enough there to win. The team has made it clear they don’t want to go over that final tax unless it is a franchise-changing player. With that mindset, guys like Anthony Santander, Jurickson Profar, and Teoscar Hernandez are just not worth it. The Luzardo addition is doubling down on their biggest strength, starting pitching. They have 5 guys in that rotation now capable of being dominant and over 7+ innings when most guys in the league now struggle to go five. The rotation should be an unwieldy beast for teams, especially come playoff time when 2 guys, probably Painter and Suarez, move to the pen as dynamic role guys. In a league where SP is at a premium, it’s safe to say the Phillies have at least four of the top ten pitchers in the National League. Hopefully, they’re not done yet, but as of now, the Phillies have had a quiet, but successful off-season.
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